Vegetation Risk

Overview

Vegetation management is a critical safety and compliance obligation for DNSPs. Overhead powerlines contacting vegetation is one of the leading causes of bushfire ignition in Australia. DNSPs are required to maintain minimum clearances under the Electricity Line Clearance (ELC) specification and manage vegetation within Bushfire Mitigation Obligation (BMO) zones.

Energy Copilot’s Vegetation Risk module combines ML classification with regulatory compliance tracking to help DNSPs prioritise inspection and clearance programs.

Regulatory Framework

Electricity Line Clearance (ELC)

Each state has an ELC specification that defines minimum clearance distances between powerlines and vegetation:

State	ELC Standard	Bushfire Season Clearance	Non-Bushfire Season
VIC	AS 4373-2016	2.5m (distribution)	1.0m
NSW	ELS Act 2004	2.0m (distribution)	0.5m
SA	Electricity Act 1996	2.5m (distribution)	0.5m

DNSPs must demonstrate ELC compliance via Annual Compliance Reports to the state electrical safety regulator.

Bushfire Mitigation Obligation (BMO) Zones

BMO zones are areas designated as high bushfire risk where additional clearance requirements apply. Vegetation in BMO zones must be cleared more frequently and to greater clearance margins.

ML Vegetation Risk Model

The XGBoost vegetation risk classifier scores every network span (section of conductor between two poles) on a risk scale from 0 (low risk) to 1 (high risk).

Model Features

Feature	Description	Weight
days_since_inspection	Days since last vegetation inspection	High
days_since_clearance	Days since last clearance work	High
fire_history_score	Historical fire ignition score for span location	High
vegetation_growth_rate	Estimated growth rate from species and climate data	Medium
span_length_m	Span length (longer spans have more vegetation exposure)	Medium
conductor_height_m	Average conductor height above ground	Medium
bmo_zone_flag	Whether the span is in a BMO zone	Medium
last_known_clearance_m	Last measured clearance distance	Medium

Model Performance

Metric	Value
Accuracy	88.7%
Precision (High Risk)	84.1%
Recall (High Risk)	89.3%
F1-macro	86.3%
AUC	0.923

See Vegetation Risk ML Model for technical details.

Dashboard Pages

Risk Map (/dnsp/vegetation-risk/map)

• Geographic map of all network spans colour-coded by risk score
• Filter by risk band (Critical/High/Medium/Low)
• BMO zone overlay
• Click span to view detailed risk factors and inspection history

Screenshot: Vegetation risk map showing spans coloured red (critical), orange (high), yellow (medium), green (low) with BMO zone overlay.

Inspection Scheduler (/dnsp/vegetation-risk/scheduler)

Prioritised inspection schedule based on:

1. Risk score (highest risk first)
2. Time since last inspection (longest overdue first)
3. Geographic clustering (minimise crew travel time)
4. BMO zone compliance deadline

-- Top 50 spans prioritised for inspection
SELECT
    span_id,
    feeder_id,
    suburb,
    bmo_zone_flag,
    risk_score,
    days_since_inspection,
    last_known_clearance_m,
    estimated_current_clearance_m,
    risk_class,
    priority_score
FROM energy_copilot.gold.dnsp_vegetation_risk
WHERE dnsp_id = 'AUSGRID'
ORDER BY priority_score DESC
LIMIT 50;

Newly Flagged Alerts

When the model runs (weekly), newly-flagged spans (those moving from Medium to High risk since last run) are surfaced in an alert feed:

• Span ID and location
• Previous and current risk class
• Key driver of risk increase
• Recommended action (inspect immediately / schedule within 30 days)

ELC Compliance Reporting

The platform generates ELC compliance reports for state electrical safety regulators:

• Total spans in network by risk category
• Percentage of spans with clearances within ELC requirements
• Non-compliant spans: locations, measured clearances, remediation timeline
• BMO zone compliance status

API Endpoints

# High-risk spans for DNSP
GET /api/dnsp/vegetation/high-risk?dnsp=ausgrid&min_score=0.7

# Span risk details
GET /api/dnsp/vegetation/span/{span_id}

# Inspection schedule (prioritised)
GET /api/dnsp/vegetation/inspection-schedule?dnsp=ergon&zone=BMO

# ELC compliance summary
GET /api/dnsp/vegetation/elc-compliance?dnsp=sa_power_networks

# Newly flagged alerts (since last model run)
GET /api/dnsp/vegetation/new-alerts?dnsp=essential_energy

# Risk score history for span
GET /api/dnsp/vegetation/history/{span_id}?months=12

Caution

The ML risk score is a decision-support tool. It does not replace physical inspection of spans. Spans with high model scores must be physically inspected before clearance work can be deprioritised. The model has a false negative rate of ~10.7% — some high-risk spans may be scored as medium risk.